Influence of precipitation event magnitude on baseflow and coastal nitrate export for Prince Edward Island, Canada

Abstract

The export of anthropogenic nitrate to coastal waters, which depends on the interplay between many factors such as land use and meteorological forcing, is a rising concern in many regions of the world. The present study investigates the effect of precipitation event magnitude on baseflow and associated groundwater-driven nitrate export in Prince Edward Island, Canada. Twenty-year time-series of precipitation, stream flow, and groundwater levels across the island were analysed to establish a three-way relationship between precipitation, groundwater level rise, and baseflow increase along a hydrological response pathway in this island setting. The analysis was performed by extracting hydrological responses for groundwater level and baseflow for a selected subset of relatively isolated precipitation events. The results reveal a non-linear relationship between precipitation event magnitude and baseflow change that is also observed for precipitation events associated with hurricanes and post tropical storms. A time-series of streamflow nitrate concentrations during Hurricane Dorian's passage (September 2019) was used to evaluate the relevance of these findings for nitrate export. The data show that baseflow increases after a heavy precipitation event have limited impact on streamflow concentrations, but result in substantial and sustained increase of nitrate export (calculated by multiplying concentration by flow). These observations are consistent with a recharge-induced water table rise leading to increased hydraulic gradients that drive discharge of shallow nitrate-containing groundwater. Due to the similarity of the processes governing groundwater flow to the sea and to streams, the results can be used to gain insights into the impacts of precipitation event magnitude on direct groundwater discharge to coastal waters. On Prince Edward Island, this applies to at least the 13% of the island's surface area that is closer to the ocean than to any stream and likely feeds submarine groundwater discharge pathways.