Development and validation of a cooling load prediction model

Abstract

In smart buildings, cooling load prediction is important and essential in the sense of energy efficiency especially in hot countries. Indeed, prediction is required in order to provide the occupant by his consumption and incite him to take right decisions that would potentially decrease his energy demand. In some existing models, prediction is based on a selected reference day. This selection depends on several conditions similarity. Such model needs deep analysis of big past data. Instead of a deep study to well select the reference day; this paper is focusing on a short sampling-rate for predicting the next state. So, this method requires less inputs and less stored data. Prediction results will be more close to the real state. In first phase, an hourly cooling load model is implemented. This model has as input current cooling load, current outside temperature and weather forecast to predict the next hour cooling consumption. To enhance model's performance and reliability, the sampling period is decreasing to 30 minutes with respect to system dynamic. Lastly, prediction's accuracy is improved by using previous errors between actual cooling load and prediction results. Simulations are realized in nodes located at a campus showing good adequacy with measurements.