Cost-competitiveness of irrigation and nutrient management strategies for closing global yield gaps

Abstract

Yield gaps, the difference between actual and attainable crop yields, offer a critical framework for enhancing agricultural productivity. While expanding irrigation and increasing nutrient inputs are central to narrowing these gaps, their cost-competitiveness, measured as net profits, remains unquantified due to uncertainties in implementation costs and yield responses. Here, we quantitatively evaluate the feasibility of yield gap closure through irrigation and nutrient management by comparing gross crop revenue gains with the costs of irrigation and fertilizer inputs. we find that 263 million hectares (31%) of global harvested area could close yield gaps is cost-effective and supported by sustainable irrigation. High-priority regions, defined by additional cost-competitiveness exceeding $400 per hectare relative to the baseline scenario and supported by sustainable irrigation, are predominantly in China, Nigeria, the democratic republic of Congo, Myanmar and Indonesia. Across these regions, yield gap closure could generate an additional US$ 76 (90% CI. 73–117) billion in net profits and support 746 (90% CI. 572-859) million more people annually relative to the baseline scenario, with particularly strong implications for food-insecure and poverty-affected regions such as Nigeria. However, there are trade-offs among resource requirements, population fed, and regional cost-competitiveness to close yield gaps, underscoring the need for tailored strategies. Our analysis identifies key regions where yield gap closure is both economically viable and supported by sustainable irrigation, offering actionable insights to enhance agricultural productivity while safeguarding long-term environmental and economic sustainability.