The Importance of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model in Econometric Modeling of Regional Socio-Economic Development

Abstract

In this research work, the short- and long-term effects of independent variables such as industrial production per capita (IP per capita), fixed capital investment per capita (FCI per capita), and the unemployment rate on the dependent variable of gross regional product per capita (GRP per capita) were examined in the context of the Khorezm region in the Republic of Uzbekistan over the period from 2005 to 2024. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to identify these effects. According to the findings, industrial production per capita and fixed capital investment per capita exert positive influences on gross regional product per capita in both the short and long term, whereas the unemployment rate demonstrates a negative impact in both periods.