Capacity of different anthropometric measures to predict diabetes in a Chinese population in southwest China: a 15-year prospective study

Abstract

Aim: To investigate whether conicity index, abdominal volume index, body adiposity index, body roundness index, cardiometabolic index and lipid accumulation product compared with waist circumference could predict future diabetes in a 15-year prospective study. Methods: The data were collected in 1992 and recollected in 2007 from the same group of 687 individuals. Anthropometric indices and biochemical data were obtained. Cox's proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios of anthropometric measures. The discriminatory power of anthropometric measures for incident diabetes were assessed by Harrell's C-statistic. Results: During follow-up, 74 participants were newly diagnosed with diabetes. In multivariable Cox regression analysis after adjusting potential for confounders, log10-conicity index [HR: 1.67 (95% CI: 1.31–2.11) per sd; P < 0.0001], log10-abdominal volume index [HR: 1.95 (95% CI: 1.50–2.55) per sd; P < 0.0001], log10-body adiposity index [HR: 1.82 (95% CI: 1.33–2.50) per sd; P < 0.0001], log10-body roundness index [HR: 2.16 (95% CI: 1.63–2.88) per sd; P < 0.0001], log10-cardiometabolic index [HR: 1.70 (95% CI: 1.39–2.09) per sd; P < 0.0001], log10-lipid accumulation product [HR: 2.06 (95% CI: 1.56–2.73) per sd; P < 0.0001] and log10-waist circumference [HR: 1.99 (95% CI: 1.51–2.46) per sd; P < 0.0001] were significantly associated with incident diabetes. Additionally, lipid accumulation product had the highest Harrell's C-statistic at 0.715 (95% CI: 0.656–0.775), followed by body roundness index at 0.714 (95% CI: 0.658–0.770) and cardiometabolic index at 0.704 (95% CI: 0.643–0.764) then by waist circumference at 0.701 (95% CI: 0.644–0.759). Conclusions: Conicity index, abdominal volume index, body adiposity index, body roundness index, cardiometabolic index and lipid accumulation product were independent predictors of future diabetes. The discriminatory power of body roundness index, cardiometabolic index and lipid accumulation product for diabetes prediction were higher than that of waist circumference.