FinTech-Enabled Startup Portfolio Optimization Under Uncertainty: A Multi-Objective CVaR–ESG Framework

Abstract

Startup investment decisions are always accompanied by high uncertainty, limited historical data, and the need to simultaneously consider financial performance, sustainability, and innovation. With the rapid expansion of financial technologies, the use of digital decision-support tools to manage this complex environment has become increasingly important. This study presents a multi-objective optimization framework for startup portfolio selection that simultaneously maximizes expected returns, minimizes downside risk using the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) measure, improves sustainability performance based on ESG indicators, and considers liquidity constraints. The main innovation of this study is the simultaneous integration of financial and non-financial criteria alongside a set of realistic structural constraints, including budget constraints, the number of options available, the concentration ceiling, and the minimum required levels for ESG, innovation, and liquidity. The results show that the proposed model is able to create a transparent balance between return, risk, sustainability, and investment horizon, and by changing the parameters related to risk and sustainability, it can target capital flows towards more innovative startups with higher ESG scores. This framework can be used as a practical tool for investors, digital investment platforms, and policymakers in responsible and data-driven capital allocation.