Penetration of Digital Payments in Greece after Capital Controls: Determinants and Impact on VAT Revenues

Abstract

The use of payment cards in Greece more than tripled in value between 2014 and 2017. Their penetration lifted off with the imposition of capital controls in 2015 and then remained on an uptrend, aided further by the measures of law 4446/2016. According to the findings of the study: (i) the law had a statistically significant, positive impact on card usage, especially in the second half of 2017, controlling for the effects of macroeconomic factors and capital controls and (ii) the penetration of electronic payments had a significant positive impact on tax compliance. Nevertheless, the average level of card use in Greece has remained lower than the EU average, while it presents significant heterogeneity across sectors and geographical areas. In conclusion, more targeted measures are warranted in order to enhance further the penetration of electronic payments, which would yield even greater fiscal benefits.