Predictive modelling for archaeological sites: Ashokan edicts from the Indian subcontinent

Abstract

This article focuses on the stone inscriptions ascribed to Ashoka, the 3rd century BC ruler of the Mauryan dynasty in ancient India. The locations of 29 known inscriptions and 8 environmental predictors at 1 km pixel resolution were entered into a species distribution model, that reliably predicted the distribution of known Ashokan edicts (AUC score 0.934). Geologic substrate (33%), population density in AD 200 (21%), and slope (13%) explained majority of the variance in the Ashokan edict locations. We have identified 121 possible locations in the Indian subcontinent that conform to the same criteria where yet undiscovered inscriptions may be found.