GIS-based neural network framework for zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis risk mapping in Western Iran

Abstract

This study presents a Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) framework for high-resolution Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL) risk mapping, correlation analysis, and scenario-based projection, integrating geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing, and neural network architecture. Historical disease maps and multi-temporal satellite-derived environmental layers were jointly modeled using a multilayer perceptron (MLP), two-dimensional convolutional neural networks (2D-CNNs), and three-dimensional CNNs (3D-CNNs). The principal methodological contribution is the implementation of a 3D-CNN, which enables explicit learning of spatiotemporal transmission dynamics. Environmental–disease relationship analyses, based on Pearson coefficients and regression models, identified temperature as the dominant positive environmental driver of ZCL risk. Model performance assessment using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) indicates that the 3D-CNN consistently outperforms alternative architectures in capturing complex spatial and temporal patterns. Elevated risk was concentrated in warmer western and southern regions, whereas cooler northern and eastern mountainous areas exhibited lower susceptibility. By 2030, ZCL risk is projected to undergo a spatial shift, with risk decreasing in western regions and intensifying in southern areas, which has direct implications for targeted surveillance and intervention efforts.