A Novel Predictive Modeling for Student Attrition Utilizing Machine Learning and Sustainable Big Data Analytics

Abstract

Student attrition poses significant societal and economic challenges, leading to unemployment, lower earnings, and other adverse outcomes for individuals and communities. To address this, predictive systems leveraging machine learning and big data aim to identify at-risk students early and intervene effectively. This study leverages big data and machine learning to identify key parameters influencing student dropout, develop a predictive model, and enable real-time monitoring and timely interventions by educational authorities. Two preliminary trials refined machine learning models, established evaluation standards, and optimized hyperparameters. These trials facilitated the systematic exploration of model performance and data quality assessment. Achieving close to 100% accuracy in dropout prediction, the study identifies academic performance as the primary influencer, with early-year subjects like Mechanics and Materials, Design of Machine Elements, and Instrumentation and Control having a significant impact. The longitudinal effect of these subjects on attrition underscores the importance of early intervention. Proposed solutions include early engagement and support or restructuring courses to better accommodate novice learners, aiming to reduce attrition rates.