Spatiotemporal Evolution of Cultivated Land Use Eco-Efficiency and Its Dynamic Relationship with Landscape Pattern Change from the Perspective of Carbon Effect: A Case Study of Henan, China

Abstract

Cultivated land is a vital factor in agricultural production but faces multiple challenges, including declining total area, spatial transformation, and ecological degradation. It is imperative to enhance cultivated land use eco-efficiency (CLUE). This study aimed to evaluate the CLUE that considers both carbon sequestration and emissions using the SBM model at the county level. Next, spatial autocorrelation was employed to measure CLUE’s spatial correlation. The spatial agglomeration pattern of CLUE was determined, then time-series cluster analysis was used to identify the temporal evolution patterns of CLUE in various districts and counties. Furthermore, we explored the spatiotemporal dynamic relationship between CLUE and landscape pattern changes using landscape pattern index and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), considering spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and using interaction detectors to identify the interaction between landscape pattern factors on CLUE. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, CLUE in Henan Province varied between 0.50 and 0.70 in most years, indicating potential for improvement. There are four primary temporal evolution patterns: 26 Late-development, 22 Wave-rising, 27 Fluctuation-rising, and 29 Continuous-rising types of CLUE. (2) CLUE exhibits low values in the middle and eastern regions, i.e., areas with high values are concentrated in the southern districts, counties, and western and northern regions. CLUE has a significant positive spatial correlation with HH agglomeration areas mainly concentrated in Xinyang City, and LL agglomeration areas mainly located in the eastern and central regions. (3) Overall, different landscape factors exhibit varying degrees of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in their impact on CLUE. The total area and aggregation of cultivated land have a positive effect on CLUE, with the area of the positive influence of the total area gradually expanding over time and the aggregation gradually decreasing. The complexity of cultivated land shape has a negative effect. The impact of cultivated land patch density is two-sided, with the area of negative influence gradually expanding over time. (4) The interaction between the total area, shape, and aggregation of cultivated land is enhanced. Additionally, the interaction between cultivated land patch density and other factors has changed from a weakening to a strengthening one, and the “double-edged sword” effect has gradually shifted into a one-way effect. Therefore, in the process of land consolidation, it is recommended to prioritize regularized, larger, and more concentrated cropland patches whenever possible.