Social-ecological determinants of contemporary megafauna distributions in Indian tropical dry woodlands

Abstract

Megafauna are among the most challenging conservation targets, particularly in the world’s tropical dry woodlands, which are under high and rising pressures. Identifying factors that maintain megafauna in increasingly human-dominated woodlands is therefore important. India’s dry woodlands are critical for megafauna, supporting substantial tiger and Asian elephant populations, yet have suffered greatly from habitat loss and degradation. We examine which social-ecological factors are associated with the contemporary distributions of six megafauna species of conservation concern in Indian tropical dry woodlands (Asian elephant, leopard, sloth bear, dhole, tiger, and gaur). Using generalized linear mixed models, we link current megafauna distributions to a range of social-ecological variables, including variables describing present-day and historical woodland extent. Our study yielded three major findings. First, contemporary tropical dry woodland cover and protected area coverage were positively associated with all six megafauna species, underscoring the importance of protecting contiguous dry woodland patches in otherwise human-dominated landscapes. Second, while the extent of woody cover was positively associated with the presence of all species, for leopards, sloth bears, gaurs, and dholes, human activities or presence were more important predictors of their distributions, potentially because they are fairly generalized and can adapt to human presence in shared landscapes. Third, legacy effects of historical dry woodland change were evident, with greater past loss associated with higher contemporary megafauna presence. Collectively, our results highlight that Indian megafauna can coexist with people across a wide range of social-ecological conditions provided that there are sufficient refuge habitats (e.g., protected areas, contiguous forests). This finding provides hope for many regions that are currently seeing their tropical dry woodlands and megafauna dwindle, provided that conservation planning is carried out to both maintain and restore woodlands to provide refuges in increasingly human-dominated tropical dry woodland landscapes.