Parking the bus or high pressing? Defensive tactical insights from the 2022 FIFA Men’s World Cup

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze which defensive performance indicators differentiate winning and losing teams and to verify which of these variables better predict winning probabilities during the Men’s 2022 FIFA World Cup. Data from all 64 matches played during the competition were gathered from public sources. The variables comprised event-based and positional-based data. Data between winning and losing teams were compared using multivariate analysis of variance, and multiple linear regression was used to detect winning predictors. Results indicated that winning teams performed more forced turnovers (p = 0.017) and spent less time in out-of-possession recovery (p = 0.005) and transition (p = 0.017). The regression analysis indicated that the forced turnovers (standardized beta = 0.446), the possession action per defensive action (standardized beta = 0.582), and the time spent in out-of-possession recovery actions (standardized beta = −0.279) significantly predict the goal difference achieved by the teams (r = 0.499. Adjusted r2 = 0.225). However, the model’s power prediction was low, indicating that multiple defensive strategies can lead to winning outcomes. In conclusion, adopting an aggressive defensive style, aiming at forcing turnovers and seeking to regain the ball high on the pitch, was the most successful defensive strategy observed in the competition.