Hydropolitics and hydrology issues in Hirmand/Helmand international river basin

Abstract

Abstract: This paper presents an empirical study to find the steady state of Hirmand/Helmand international basin. Using Markov chain method and by considering seven states including very dry, dry, semi-dry, average, semi-wet, wet and very wet, the proposed study uses historical data over the period 1952-1997 and determines the steady state of the region. The results of the survey indicate that the likelihood of having very dry, dry, semi-dry, average, semi-wet, wet and very wet states are 10.4, 27.6, 9.5, 17.5, 18.5, 11.1 and 5.4 percent, respectively. In other words, there is a chance of 47.5% for having dry or very dry state, 35% for having semi and very wet and a likelihood of 17.5% for having normal condition.