Technology Roadmap Methodology and Tool Upgrades to Support Strategic Decision in Space Exploration

Abstract

Technological roadmaps are essential tools for managing and planning complex projects, especially in the rapidly evolving field of space exploration. Defined as dynamic schedules, they support strategic and long-term planning while coordinating current and future objectives with particular technology solutions. Currently, the available methodologies are mostly built on experts’ opinions and in just few cases, methodologies and tools have been developed to support the decision makers with a rational approach. In any case, all the available approaches are meant to draw “ideal” maturation plans. Therefore, it is deemed essential to develop an integrate new algorithms able to decision guidelines on “non-nominal” scenarios. In this context, Politecnico di Torino, in collaboration with the European Space Agency (ESA) and Thales Alenia Space–Italia, developed the Technology Roadmapping Strategy (TRIS), a multi-step process designed to create robust and data-driven roadmaps. However, one of the main concerns with its initial implementation was that TRIS did not account for time and budget estimates specific to the space exploration environment, nor was it capable of generating alternative development paths under constrained conditions. This paper discloses two main significant updates to TRIS methodology: (1) improved time and budget estimation to better reflect the specific challenges of space exploration scenarios and (2) the capability of generating alternative roadmaps, i.e., alternative technological maturation paths in resource-constrained scenarios, balancing financial and temporal limitations. The application of the developed routines to available case studies confirms the tool’s ability to provide consistent planning outputs across multiple scenarios without exceeding 20% deviation from expert-based judgements available as reference. The results demonstrate the potential of the enhanced methodology in supporting strategic decision making in early-phase mission planning, ensuring adaptability to changing conditions, optimized use of time and financial resources, as well as guaranteeing an improved flexibility of the tool. By integrating data-driven prioritization, uncertainty modeling, and resource-constrained planning, TRIS equips mission planners with reliable tools to navigate the complexities of space exploration projects. This methodology ensures that roadmaps remain adaptable to changing conditions and optimized for real-world challenges, supporting the sustainable advancement of space exploration initiatives.