The estimation of snowfall rate using visibility

Abstract

The relationship between liquid equivalent snowfall rate and visibility is investigated using data collected at the National Center for Atmospheric Research Marshall Snowfall Test Site during two winter field seasons and using theoretical relationships. The observational data include simultaneous liquid equivalent snowfall rate, crystal types, and both automated and manual visibility measurements. Theoretical relationships between liquid equivalent snowfall rate and visibility are derived for 27 crystal types, and for "dry" and "wet" aggregated snowflakes. Both the observations and theory show that the relationship between liquid equivalent snowfall rate and visibility depends on the crystal type, the degree of riming, the degree of aggregation, and the degree of wetness of the crystals, leading to a large variation in the relationship between visibility and snowfall rate. Typical variations in visibility for a given liquid equivalent snowfall rate ranged from a factor of 3 to a factor of 10, depending on the storm. This relationship is shown to have a wide degree of scatter from storm to storm and also during a given storm. The main cause for this scatter is the large variation in cross-sectional area to mass ratio and terminal velocity for natural snow particles. It also is shown that the visibility at night can be over a factor of 2 greater than the visibility during the day for the same atmospheric extinction coefficient. Since snowfall intensity is defined by the U.S. National Weather Service using visibility, this day/night difference in visibility results in a change in snowfall intensity category caused by only whether it is day or night. For instance, a moderate snowfall intensity during the day will change to a light snowfall intensity at night, and a heavy snowfall intensity during the day will change to a moderate snowfall intensity at night, for the same atmospheric extinction coefficient. Thus, the standard relationship between snowfall intensity and visibility used by many national weather services (1/4 mile or less visibility corresponds to heavy snowfall intensity, between 5/16 and 5/8 mile corresponds to moderate intensity, and greater than 5/8 mile corresponds to light intensity) does not always provide the correct indication of actual liquid equivalent snowfall rate because of the variations in snow type and the differences in the nature of visibility targets during day and night. This false indication may have been a factor in previous ground-deicing accidents in which light snow intensity was reported based on visibility, when in fact the actual measured liquid equivalent snowfall rate was moderate to heavy.