Combined Drug Interventions and its Efficacy in the Reduction of COVID-19 Burden : A Within-Host Modeling Study with reference to HCQ and BCG Vaccination

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in more 176 million cases and around 3.82 million deaths worldwide. Different drug interventions acting at multiple stages of the pathogenesis of COVID-19 can substantially reduce infection-induced mortality. The current within-host mathematical modeling studies deals with the optimal combined drug intervention strategy and its efficacy in reducing the burden of COVID-19. The drug interventions considered here include Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), the first BCG vaccine dose, and a booster dose of BCG administered at a later stage. In this work, we consider two scenarios involving the administration of these interventions. The findings of these studies include the following: the average infected cell count and viral load decreased the most when both the HCQ and BCG interventions were applied together in both scenarios. On the other hand, the average susceptible cell count decreased the best when HCQ alone was administered in both these scenarios. From the comparative effectiveness study it was observed that the basic reproduction number and viral count decreased the best when HCQ and BCG booster interventions were applied together, reinstating the fact obtained earlier in the optimal control setting. These findings may help physicians with decision making in the treatment of life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia. This study involving different drug interventions is first of its kind. © Research India Publications.