Technological system has been evolving due to the impact of product market. Technological innovation includes incremental innovation, radical innovation, and disruptive innovation. These three innovations run through the process of technical systemic evolution. In the S curve evolutions, path of technique evolution can be used to predict the potential state of current technology, so as to achieve future product with current technology, thus improving the success rate of product development. But the previous technology evolution theory can be used for forecasting incremental technological innovation which is on single segment S curve only. There are many evolution bifurcations which have lots of technical opportunities during the actual process of evolution. It can achieve an effective innovation. However, the branching process of evolution routes are unable be forecasted by means of traditional technology evolution theories. This paper researches evolution route bifurcations based on technical subsystem status analysis and resource analysis as well as technical evolution theory, concludes the technological opportunities searching method on path of technique evolution route bifurcation point and then seek to realize technology evolution of bifurcation point technological forecast and pre-producing. Finally, based on the technological opportunities search method on path of technique evolution bifurcations, we use this method on the innovative design for Automatic Teller Machine, forecast several technical branch products, and then verify the effectiveness of this method.
Sun, J. G., Tan, R., Guo, J., Chai, T., & Liu, X. (2015). Analysis on technological opportunities of evolution bifurcations. In Procedia Engineering (Vol. 131, pp. 1113–1120). Elsevier Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2015.12.429