Early Peak Badges from Wi-Fi Telemetry: A Field Feasibility Study of Lunchtime Crowd Management on a Smart Campus

Abstract

Smart cities increasingly reuse existing Wi-Fi infrastructure to sense crowding, but many smart-campus tools still fail to support routine, day-to-day decisions. A short-horizon field feasibility study was conducted to prototype a low-maintenance, prefix-based early-warning rule that turns anonymized campus Wi-Fi access-point counts into an interpretable lunchtime crowd signal. Daily 7-min access-point profiles from five university canteens (11:00–14:00) were aggregated, winsorized, smoothed, and row-z-scored, then clustered into demand-shape typologies using k-means++. Two typologies were obtained (Early Peak and Late Shift), and a cosine-similarity atlas was frozen. At 11:28, the five-bin occupancy prefix was compared to typology centroids, and an Early Peak badge was issued when similarity to the Early Peak centroid exceeded a preset threshold. On held-out days, the Early Peak typology could be identified at 11:28 with coverage of 0.73 and agreement of 0.86 relative to end-of-day labels. In 20 matched canteen-weekday pairs, badge days were associated with a Hodges–Lehmann median reduction of 0.193 standard-deviation units in peak crowding (≈9% lower). Given the short (3-week) horizon and limited hold-out window, results are presented as feasibility evidence and motivate a larger controlled evaluation. Simple, interpretable rules built on existing Wi-Fi telemetry were shown to be deployable as a feasibility-level decision aid on a smart campus, while broader smart-city transferability should be validated through longer-horizon controlled evaluations.