Extracting Forest Land Use Change Components: The Effects on Ecosystem Services and Human Well-Being

Abstract

Examining the effects of forest land use change (FLUC) on ecosystem services (ECS) and human well-being (HWB) is essential for reducing global changes and promoting sustainable development. This study employed a three-round Delphi method with 25 purposefully selected experts from forestry, natural resources, and related fields to identify significant influencing factors, prioritize research areas, and recognize information gaps. The results show that FLUC intensity is increasing, with the highest impacts observed on regulating and supporting services (Mean = 4.54 for both). Regarding HWB, the most pronounced effects were on health (M = 3.84) and basic material needs (M = 3.70). Other negative impacts include reduced local community income from forest products and diminished collective participation in decision-making. A high consensus was achieved among the experts (Kendall's W = 0.993 for FLUC intensity). Understanding these impacts is crucial for assisting policymakers in formulating policies that address stakeholder conflicts, enhance collaboration, and ensure equitable benefit distribution. Specifically, the study provides a validated set of prioritized indicators—such as “weakness in dealing with wrongdoers” (top FLUC intensity indicator, M = 4.68) and “reduction of local communities' income from forest products” (top provisioning service impact, M = 4.32). This offers a concrete decision-support framework, enabling policymakers to target key conflict drivers, foster cooperation based on shared priorities, and design benefit-sharing mechanisms that address the most critically affected aspects of HWB and ECS.