An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China

19Citations
Citations of this article
33Readers
Mendeley users who have this article in their library.
Get full text

Abstract

Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Cite

CITATION STYLE

APA

Xu, Y., McNamara, P., Wu, Y., & Dong, Y. (2013). An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China. Journal of Environmental Management, 128, 324–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.05.020

Register to see more suggestions

Mendeley helps you to discover research relevant for your work.

Already have an account?

Save time finding and organizing research with Mendeley

Sign up for free