Prediction of Online Psychological Help-Seeking Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Interpretable Machine Learning Method

Abstract

Online mental health service (OMHS) has been named as the best psychological assistance measure during the COVID-19 pandemic. An interpretable, accurate, and early prediction for the demand of OMHS is crucial to local governments and organizations which need to allocate and make the decision in mental health resources. The present study aimed to investigate the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the online psychological help-seeking (OPHS) behavior in the OMHS, then propose a machine learning model to predict and interpret the OPHS number in advance. The data was crawled from two Chinese OMHS platforms. Linguistic inquiry and word count (LIWC), neural embedding-based topic modeling, and time series analysis were utilized to build time series feature sets with lagging one, three, seven, and 14 days. Correlation analysis was used to examine the impact of COVID-19 on OPHS behaviors across different OMHS platforms. Machine learning algorithms and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) were used to build the prediction. The result showed that the massive growth of OPHS behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic was a common phenomenon. The predictive model based on random forest (RF) and feature sets containing temporal features of the OPHS number, mental health topics, LIWC, and COVID-19 cases achieved the best performance. Temporal features of the OPHS number showed the biggest positive and negative predictive power. The topic features had incremental effects on performance of the prediction across different lag days and were more suitable for OPHS prediction compared to the LIWC features. The interpretable model showed that the increase in the OPHS behaviors was impacted by the cumulative confirmed cases and cumulative deaths, while it was not sensitive in the new confirmed cases or new deaths. The present study was the first to predict the demand for OMHS using machine learning during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study suggests an interpretable machine learning method that can facilitate quick, early, and interpretable prediction of the OPHS behavior and to support the operational decision-making; it also demonstrated the power of utilizing the OMHS platforms as an always-on data source to obtain a high-resolution timeline and real-time prediction of the psychological response of the online public.