MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF MYCOBACTERIUM TUBERCULOSIS TRANSMISSION IN HUMANS WITH HOSPITALIZATION AND REINFECTION

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB), a serious public health infection that mainly affects the lungs, is caused by bacteria (Mycobacterium tuberculosis, TB). This research is designed and analyzed using a compartmental modelling approach to study the transmission dynamics of TB with different stages of infection. Qualitative analysis of the proposed model reveals that the model exhibits two equilibrium points: the disease-free equilibrium point (DFE) and the endemic equilibrium (EE). The basic reproduction number (R0) is determined using the next-generation matrix technique, and stability analysis is carried out to show whether the disease can persist or die out in population. Further analysis of the model shows that the EE is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) when R0 > 1. With the aid of the forward sensitivity index method, we determine the most sensitive parameters of the model to control the spread of TB infection effectively. Our analysis shows that treatment (medication) and campaign awareness coupled with other key control measures, could help maintain the spread of MTB infection in human geographical boundaries.