Wheat production price performance prediction in the Iranian north province

Abstract

Wheat is a cereal grain, originally from the Levant region of the Near East and Ethiopian Highlands, but now cultivated worldwide. Wheat was a key factor enabling the emergence of city-based societies at the start of civilization because it was one of the first crops that could be easily cultivated on a large scale, and had the additional advantage of yielding a harvest that provides long-term storage of food. The purpose of this paper is to review increase or decrease effects of the wheat production price from the on farm to the retail, and then analyze the transmission mode of price fluctuations in the wheat market. The original research uses the weekly price wheat from December 2009 to December 2012 in the Iranian north province stock market. It applied the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) method for prediction of price transmission performance in the wheat production; the results of this study indicate that the price transfer from wholesale to retail to be done asymmetrical. This study contributes to research on transmission of the wheat price from the on farm to retail market.\t \tKey words: Causality test, wheat production, fuzzy cognitive map (FCM), Iranian north province