Salinity and hypoxia in the Baltic Sea since A.D. 1500

Abstract

Over the past century, large salinity variability and deteriorating oxygen conditions have been observed in the Baltic Sea. These long-term changes were investigated in the central Baltic Sea using an ocean climate model with meteorological forcing based on seasonal temperature and pressure reconstructions covering the period 1500-1995. The results indicate that the salinity has slowly increased by 0.5 salinity units since 1500, peaking in the middle eighteenth century. Oxygen concentration is negatively correlated with salinity in the major part of the water column, indicating improved ventilation during a fresher state of the Baltic Sea. It is suggested that anoxic conditions have occurred in the deep water several times per century since 1500. However, since the middle twentieth century, increased oxygen consumption that is most likely the effect of anthropogenic nutrient release has resulted in a persistent oxygen deficiency in the water below 125 m. Within the limitations of our model formulation we suggest that the contemporary severe oxygen conditions are unprecedented since 1500. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.