C-reactive protein predicts the development of walled-off necrosis in patients with severe acute pancreatitis

Abstract

Background and Aim: Walled-off necrosis (WON) is reported to occur in 1–9% of patients with acute pancreatitis. However, the factors associated with the onset of this condition have not been elucidated. This study aimed to investigate the potential predictive factors for WON in patients diagnosed with severe acute pancreatitis at our hospital. Methods: This study included 26 patients with severe acute pancreatitis identified among the 211 patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to our hospital between January 2014 and December 2018. Patients with and without WON (WON and non-WON groups, respectively) were compared to identify potential factors involved in the onset of this condition. Results: The 26 patients had a median age of 67 years, and 65% were male. WON occurred in 15 patients (57.7%). In a univariate analysis, the WON and non-WON groups differed significantly in terms of maximum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (median) (322.7 mg/L vs 163.8 mg/L [P = 0.001]). In a multivariate analysis, a significant association was identified between the maximum CRP level and the onset of WON (odds ratio: 1.20, 95% confidence interval: 1.05–1.37). The CRP level peaked within 3 days in 88%. Conclusion: The maximum CRP level was identified as a predictive factor for the onset of WON, and a high proportion of patients with WON exhibited elevated CRP levels within 3 days after diagnosis. This work suggests the clinical importance of continuous monitoring at an early stage after diagnosis to identify the maximum CRP level.