Multimodel framework for characterization of transport in porous media

Abstract

We consider modeling approaches to characterize solute transport in porous media, integrating them into a unique theoretical and experimental framework for model evaluation and data interpretation. To date, development of (conservative and reactive chemical) transport models and formulation of model calibration methods grounded on sensitivity-based collection of measurements have been pursued in parallel. Key questions that remain include: For a given set of measurements, which conceptual picture of the transport processes, as embodied in a mathematical model or models, is most appropriate? What are the most valuable space-time locations for solute concentration measurements, depending on the model selected? How is model parameter uncertainty propagated to model output, and how does this propagation affect model calibration? We address these questions by merging parallel streams of research - model formulation, reduction, calibration, sensitivity analysis, and discrimination - offering our view on an emerging framework that guides (i) selection of an appropriate number and location of time-dependent concentration measurements given a transport model and (ii) assessment (through discrimination criteria) of the relative benefit of applying any particular model from a set of several models. Our strategy is to employ metrics to quantify the relative contribution of each uncertain model parameter to the variability of the model output. We evaluate these metrics through construction of a surrogate (or "meta") transport model that has the additional benefit of enabling sensitivity analysis and model calibration at a highly reduced computational cost. We demonstrate the applicability of this framework, focusing on transport of reactive chemicals in laboratory-scale porous media.