Efficacy of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in Patients with Mismatch Repair-Deficient or Microsatellite Instability-High Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: Analysis of Three Phase-II Trials

Abstract

Programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1) and programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) inhibitors are increasingly used in a variety of solid tumors. In patients with DNA mismatch repair-deficient (dMMR)/microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) metastatic colorectal cancer, their efficacy has been demonstrated in recently published phase-II trials. However, an indirect comparison of effectiveness between pembrolizumab, nivolumab, and nivolumab+ipilimumab is not yet available. After a standard literature search, we analyzed four overall survival (OS) curves from three phase-II trials. Individual patient data were reconstructed from each curve using a specific web-based technique (Shiny method). Indirect statistical comparisons were made based on hazard ratio (HR) and restricted mean survival time (RMST). Nivolumab+ipilumumab had a better HR compared with pembrolizumab (0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.43 to 1.002, p=0.051); the difference being close to statistical significance. In the analysis based on RMST, the combination of nivolumab+ipilimumab showed a significantly longer OS than pembrolizumab (improvement in RMST, 1.08 mos; 95%CI, 0.11 to 2.06; p=0.029). The other two pairwise differences in RMST (nivolumab vs. pembrolizumab and nivolumab+ ipilimumab vs. nivolumab) had a smaller magnitude (0.25 mos, 95%CI, -0.99 to 1.48, and 0.84 mos, 95%CI, -0.40 to 2.07, respectively) and were far from statistical significance. Our results favoring the combination of nivolumab+ipilimumab in metastatic colorectal cancer must be viewed with caution owing to the indirect nature of our statistical comparisons. With this limitation in mind, the magnitude of the incremental benefit for the above combination treatment was estimated to be around one month over a follow-up of 15 months.