A case study in view of developing predictive models for water supply system management

Abstract

Initiated by a case study to assess the effectiveness of the modernisation actions undertaken in a water supply system, some R&D activities were conducted to construct a global predictive model, based on the available operational failure and recovery data. The available operational data, regarding the water supply system, are the pipes’ diameter, failure modes, materials, functional conditions, seasonality, and the number of failures and time-to-recover intervals. The operational data are provided by the water company responsible of the supply system. A predictive global model is proposed based on the output of the operational data statistical assessment. It should assess the expected effectiveness of decisions taken in support of the modernisation and the extension plan.