Rescaling the legal dimensions of grey zones: Evidence from Ukraine

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 ended the hybrid stage of conflict that emerged in 2014, following the Russian illegal annexation of Crimea and proxy aggression in East Ukraine. Empirical data demonstrate a two-fold interplay between grey zone strategies and applicable rules. ‘Lawfare’ instruments affect jus ad bellum, permitting multiple political choices and the deployment of different means of hybrid warfare. A grey zone conflict itself develops conflicting and overlapping sets of rules supported by different actors. Eventually, additional rules may emerge due to the actions or interactions of conflicting parties; these rules focus on conflict management or settlement.