Influence of the track forecast of typhoon prapiroon on the heavy rainfall in Western Japan in July 2018

Abstract

The predictability of the Heavy Rain Event in July 2018 is examined by forecast experiments with an operational global atmospheric forecast model. Experiments from different initial times show that the overall rainfall distribution at the peak on 6 July can be predicted from 12 UTC, June 30, and later. In the successful forecasts, the track error of Typhoon Prapiroon against the best track is small. In the experiments with longer lead times, by contrast, the Baiu frontal zone has a northwared bias with less precipitation, and Prapiroon hardly develop and migrates westward. Poor track forecasts seem to be related to the limited vertical development of the vortex. Near surface equivalent potential tempeature and Q-vector analysis show that Prapiroon act to intensify the Baiu frontal zone. In conclusion, the correct track forecast is essential for Baiu frontogenesis and the formation of heavy precipitation in western Japan.