The goal of the analysis is to quantify potential effects of electrifying the commercial transport and the impacts on a national energy system. This is done for the case of Germany, but can be adapted to other energy systems. Based on the historical trend of vehicle stocks and technologies a reference scenario is developed to the year 2030. Energy demand and supply, emissions and costs are calculated and evaluated with focus on the energy systems perspective. The results point out that the impacts of an electrified commercial fleet on the German energy system are not significant. The primary energy consumption is only reduced very slightly by the assumed share of electric vehicles. However, the mix of final energy carriers in transportation is affected significantly. The use of mineral oil products is reduced by 8.4% up to 2030 in comparison to a business as usual scenario. The additional electricity consumed by the electric vehicles requires no significant enlargement of the electricity generation capacity but a moderately increased utilization rate. The CO2 emissions reduction by electric vehicles reaches around 6 million tons of CO2 per year in 2030 for the German case study. The assumed electrified commercial fleet in urban areas contributes with approximately 3 million tons of CO2 to this reduction. The emission saving depends on charging strategies as well as generation characteristics of wind and PV. Especially the policy goal of reducing final energy demand in the transport sector (-40% to 2050 according to the German "Energiewende") turns out as an important driver for electric vehicle applications in road transportation.
Linssen, J., Gillessen, B., Heinrichs, H., & Hennings, W. (2017). Electrification of Commercial Road Transport - Attainable Effects and Impacts on National Energy Supply Systems. In Energy Procedia (Vol. 105, pp. 2245–2252). Elsevier Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.641