Evaluating the uncertainty of hydrological model simulations coupled with meteorological forecasts at different spatial scales

Abstract

In recent years, the interest in the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge for numerical weather modeling, in particular for limited area models, to improve the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for hydrological purposes. In this study a hindcast for some precipitation events, occurred in Piemonte region and in the Maggiore Lake basin, is analyzed to evaluate how the uncertainty of meteorological forecasts influences the performance of hydrological predictions at different spatial scales. This hydro-meteorological chain includes both probabilistic forecasting based on ensemble prediction systems and deterministic forecasts based on high resolution atmospheric models. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano.