Expansion, displacement and interiorization of homicides in Brazil, between 2000 and 2015: A spatial analysis

Abstract

The scope of this paper is to analyze the variation of the spatial pattern of the homicide rate in Brazil between 2000 and 2015. It is an ecological study by micro-regions of homicides taken from the Mortality Information System, using Moran indexes, and critical area clusters (95% CI). The rate increased by 6% (to 29.1/100,000 inhabitants (95% CI 28.9, 29.4), and in 80% of the micro regions between 2000 and 2015. The areas with high rates (> 38.2/100,000) increased 2.7-fold. In 2000, the highest rates were concentrated in areas in Pernambuco, São Paulo, Mato Grosso and Rio de Janeiro; by 2015, it will affect most states in the North and Northeast. The coastal regions of the Northeast and borders of Pará and Maranhão in the Amazon are critical areas. The lowest rate (19.1/100,000) is in São Paulo and Santa Catarina micro regions, with less critical clusters in the Southeast and South regions. Homicides have expanded into the interior of Brazil, with displacement between regions, mainly gravitating towards the poorest, which exhibit more critical areas in several scenarios, such as state borders and the coast. Conversely, there is marked contraction of homicides in states of highly developed regions with the presence of less critical areas.