Properties of Monte Carlo and Its Application to Risk Management

Abstract

The complexity and turbulence of a project may lead to its unpredictability, so risk management is increasingly important. This paper focuses on the application of Monte Carlo method in project management as follow: first, deals with the estimated scale with Wide band Delphi method and gets the interval of prediction after making repeated samples in line with the generally adopted probability models; then figures out the workloads according to the management abilities and historical date; finally obtains the progress of the project with a method combining COCOMO II method and then improves the ability to predict and control management activities with uncertainties. © 2015 SERSC.