Human-induced and climate-driven contributions to water storage variations in the Haihe River Basin, China

Abstract

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) can be influenced by both climate change and anthropogenic activities. While the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have provided a global view on long-term trends in TWS, our ability to disentangle human impacts from natural climate variability remains limited. Here we present a quantitative method to isolate these two contributions with reconstructed climate-driven TWS anomalies (TWSA) based on long-term precipitation data. Using the Haihe River Basin (HRB) as a case study, we find a higher human-induced water depletion rate (-12.87 - 1.07 mm/yr) compared to the original negative trend observed by GRACE alone for the period of 2003-2013, accounting for a positive climate-driven TWSA trend (+4.31 - 0.72 mm/yr). We show that previous approaches (e.g., relying on land surface models) provide lower estimates of the climate-driven trend, and thus likely underestimated the human-induced trend. The isolation method presented in this study will help to interpret observed long-term TWS changes and assess regional anthropogenic impacts on water resources.