Controlling carbon emissions through modeling and optimization: addressing an earth system and environment challenge

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the trend of carbon dioxide CO2 emissions from various sources in Pakistan between 1990 and 2020 to effectively model the underlying dynamics of carbon emissions. The design and fitting of the model to historical emissions data reveal significant trends and patterns, highlighting the alarming increase in CO2 emissions. These findings underscore the necessity for robust policy interventions to mitigate emissions and achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs). This work can contribute to addressing the challenges of recent plans targeting global warming and the climate emergency. By controlling these parameters, the mean reversion can be managed, allowing for the control of the increasing rate of carbon emissions in regions threatened by climate change. The O-U model provides a valuable framework for understanding the stochastic nature of carbon emissions, offering insights into the persistence and variability of emission levels over time. The optimized parametric thresholds of the stochastic model, after synchronizing it with the real data, reveal that the challenge of carbon emissions cannot be naturally resolved and serious interventions are highly desired. These include robust policy measures to mitigate emissions, improve air quality, and combat climate change.