Analysis of streamflow response to changing climate conditions using SWAT model

Abstract

The understanding of climate change is curial for the security of hydrologic conditions of river basins and it is very important to study the climate change impacts on streamflow by analyzing the different climate scenarios with the help of the hydrological models. The main purpose of this study is to project the future climate impact on streamflow by using the SWAT model. The multi-model projections indicated that Upper Ayeyarwady River Basin is likely to become hotter in dry season under low rainfall intensity with increasing temperature and likely to become wetter but warmer in both rainy and winter season because of high rainfall intensity with increased temperature in future. The impact of climate change scenarios is predicted to decrease the annual streamflow by about 0.30 to 1.92% under RCP2.6, 5.59 to 7.29% under RCP4.5 and 10.43 to 11.92% under RCP8.5. Based on the change in high and low flow percentage with respect to the baseline period, the difference between high and low flow variation range will increase year by year based on future scenarios. Therefore, it can be concluded that it may occur more low flow in the dry season which leads to increase in water scarcity and drought and more high flow in the wet season which can cause flooding, water insecurity, stress, and other water-related disasters.