Development of the Russian Economy in the Medium Term: Risks and Opportunities

Abstract

Abstract—: The article examines the key risks of the development of the Russian economy in the medium term, resulting from the deterioration of trade and economic relations with developed countries. The most important changes in the model of functioning of the national economy are described. It is stated that restrictions on the supply of imported products have become the leading factor in the reduction of economic activity in 2022. The shifts in the formation of production, income and prices under the influence of sanctions are considered as a process of structural and technological restructuring of the Russian economy, requiring an increase in investment in the modernization of production and an increase in costs for research and development. The high dependence on imports and the technological backwardness of the Russian economy are seen as key constraints to its sustainable development in the medium term. One of the ways to compensate for the negative impact of sanctions, with a high probability, will be the replacement of high-quality resources with mass ones. It is emphasized that, taking into account the tasks of economic development, the period of loss of the quality of economic growth should not be long, and in the medium and long term, the qualitative component of growth should prevail in the formation of economic dynamics.