Estimating the production potential of major crops in Pakistan's irrigated agriculture during the 21st century

Abstract

Irrigated agriculture plays an important role in the food and fibre production required for feeding and clothing the ever-increasing world population since time immemorial. However, in Pakistan, the agricultural production is inadequate to meet the basic food and fibre requirements of the rapidly increasing population. According to one estimate, Pakistan's population was reported to be 132 million in 1996 (GOP 1996-97) and is projected to be 207 million in 2013 [WSIP (1990)]. Corresponding to the required food grains production of about 28.4 Million Tons (MT), the estimate would be about 22 MT by 2000 (about 23 percent shortage of food grains by year 2000). This grain production deficit would almost double (46 percent) by 2013. The irrigation requirements for 2000 and 2013 would be 176 and 254 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM), respectively, but water availability falls short of requirements by 50 and 133 BCM in 2000 and 2013, respectively. Consequently, the agricultural production would fail to meet the demand. There is an urgent need to manage irrigation water effectively in order to meet sustained agricultural productivity. The knowledge of factors responsible for variations in productivity differences across different regions would be of immense help for planned improvement of the agricultural sector on a sustainable basis. With this end in view, this study has attempted to determine the efficiency of land use on farms in the Rechna Doab (land between the Ravi and Chenab Rivers; consisting of 2.45 million hectare (Mha) of total farm area, of which the cultivated area is about 2.3 Mha). Estimates regarding the operational distribution of land holdings in the Rechna Doab are made across different farm-size groups and their relationship with unused cultivable lands. The spatial and temporal relationship between the cropping intensity and the size of holding, as well as the influence of the level of irrigation on the cropping intensity, are also explained. After examining the level of efficiency in land utilisation at the district level, as well as at the Rechna Doab level, it estimates the additional potential productivity of the major crops. This study made use of both, the primary data collected from 443 farms in the Rechna Doab, along with forty years' secondary data, which were taken from four Agricultural Census Reports of Pakistan for the years 1960, 1972, 1980 and 1990. The regression results, of log-linear functional form, revealed that the farm size is related positively to culturable wastelands, while it is related negatively to cropping intensity. Conclusions indicate that if a full level of land utilisation could take place in the Rechna Doab, the total additional crop area could be increased by about 0.94 Mha. There is also the potential for production of the four major crops (i.e. wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane) to increase, by 0.95, 0.28, 0.10 and 4.6 million tons, respectively in the 21st century.