Forecasting Daily Rainfall From Satellite Data

Abstract

Abstract This paper outlines a rainfall forecasting model involving satellite nephanalyses and certain conventional weather data for application in regions where the rain-bearing clouds are advectional rather than convectional. Essentially, the scheme depends upon the selection each day of an appropriate cloud quadrant for the station in question and the evaluation of a “rainfall prediction index” for that quadrant, embracing its synoptic weather organization, its mean cloud cover, and its included cloud types. The rainfall prediction index is then used to forecast a class of rainfall for the day ahead in terms of “no rain,” “light rain,” “moderate rain,” or “heavy rain;” being interpreted through tabulations of related rainfall measurements. The essential indices are specified for Valentia, Republic of Ireland, from January through June 1967. Rainfall “forecasts” are then made for July through December 1967 using these indices, and the results are discussed. Verification of these forecasts indicates a ra...