Forecasting U.S. hurricanes 6 months in advance

Abstract

Katrina is a grim reminder of the serious social and economic threat that hurricanes pose to the United States. Recent advances in hurricane climate science provide skillful forecasts of the U.S. hurricane threat at (or near) the start of the season. Predictions of hurricane landfalls at longer lead times (forecast horizons) for the complete hurricane season would greatly benefit risk managers and others interested in acting on these forecasts. Here we show a model that provides a 6-month forecast horizon for annual hurricane counts along the U.S. coastline during the June through November hurricane season using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) as predictors. Forecast skill exceeds that of climatology. The long-lead skill is linked to the persistence of Atlantic SST and to teleconnections between North Atlantic sea-level pressures and precipitation variability over North America and Europe. The model is developed using Bayesian regression and therefore incorporates the full set of Atlantic hurricane data extending back to 1851. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.