Gender, Race and Disease Etiology Predict de Novo Malignancy Risk after Liver Transplantation: Insights for Future Individualized Cancer Screening Guidance

Abstract

Background Malignancy after liver transplant (LT) is a leading cause of mortality, but data is limited. The aim of this study was to identify patients at higher risk for de novo malignancies after LT in a large multicenter database. Methods The Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database comprising all 108 412 LT recipients across the United States between 1987 and March 2015 was analyzed with a median follow-up of 6.95 years. Potential risk factors for malignancies after LT were assessed using Cox regression analysis for the outcome of time to first malignancy. Results Mean age 51.9 ± 10.8 years, 64.6% male, 74.5% white, and 15.8% with previous malignancy. Malignancies during follow-up were 4,483 (41.3%) skin, 1519 (14.0%) hematologic, and 4842 (44.7%) solid organ. The 10-year probability of de novo malignancy was 11.5% (11.3-11.8%). On multivariable analysis, age by decade (hazard ratio [HR], 1.52; P < 0.001), male sex (HR, 1.28; P < 0.001), white race (compared with other races: HR, 1.45-2.04; P < 0.001), multiorgan transplant (HR, 1.35; P < 0.001), previous malignancy (HR, 1.34; P < 0.001), and alcoholic liver disease, autoimmune, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (HR, 1.35; P < 0.001), and primary sclerosing cholangitis pre-LT (compared with hepatitis C virus, P < 0.001) were associated with higher risk of post-LT malignancy, but type of immunosuppression was not (P = NS). Conclusions This large data set demonstrates the effects of ethnicity/race and etiologies of liver disease, particularly nonalcoholic steatohepatitis as additional risk factors for cancer after LT. Patients with these high-risk characteristics should be more regularly and diligently screened.