Human Paleodemography and Paleoecology of the North Pacific Rim from the Mid to Late Holocene

Abstract

Using 14 proxy human population time series from around the North Pacific (Alaska, Hokkaido and the Kuril Islands), we evaluate the possibility that the North Pacific climate and marine ecosystem includes a millennial-scale regime shift cycle affecting subsistence and migration. We develop both visual and statistical methods for addressing questions about relative population growth and movement in the past. We introduce and explore the use of a Time Iterative Moran I (TIMI) spatial autocorrelation method to compare time series trends quantitatively - a method that could prove useful in other paleoecological analyses. Results reveal considerable population dynamism around the North Pacific in the last 5000 years and strengthen a previously reported inverse correlation between Northeast and Northwest Pacific proxy population indices. Visual and TIMI analyses suggest multiple, overlapping explanations for the variability, including the potential that oscillating ecological regime shifts affect the North Pacific basin. These results provide an opening for coordinated research to unpack the interrelated social, cultural and environmental dynamics around the subarctic and arctic North Pacific at different spatial and temporal scales by international teams of archaeologists, historians, paleoecologists, paleoceanographers, paleoclimatologists, modelers and data management specialists.