THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN ETHIOPIA

Abstract

There is no yet clear theoretical and empirical consensus on the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and domestic investment. The main purpose of this study, therefore, is to examine the effect of real effective exchange rate uncertainty on domestic investment for the Ethiopian economy over the sample period 1992Q1- 2016Q1. To address this objective, Jordà’s (2005) local projection method is employed and generalized impulse response functions are generated in this study. The impulse response functions exhibit that one standard deviation shock in exchange rate uncertainty stimulates domestic investment for the Ethiopian economy. In response to one standard deviation shock in exchange rate uncertainty, domestic investment increases to around 4 percent at the second quarter. This may indicate the existence of risk neutral or insensitive domestic investors to exchange rate uncertainty in Ethiopia. As to the effects of other control variables, domestic investment also increases in response to real income and real effective exchange rate shocks. The effect of inflation shock on domestic investment is positive and statistically significant up to the eighth quarter, and negative and significant afterwards.