Climate variability indicators - scientific data versus farmers perception; evidence from southern Ghana

Abstract

Even though copious knowledge has been advanced in the extant literature on climate variability and change. Two schools of thought exist—one that views farmers’ perceptions of climate indicators as erroneous and inferior, while the other views, scientific data, specifically meteorological data, to be superior and accurate. The accuracy of farmers perception of climate variability indicators is in doubt relative to the scientific data. This article targets assessing farmers perception of climate variability indicators compared to the scientific data with an eye to distil policy implications for climate variability resilience and adaptation. Using cross-sectional data on 197 smallholder maize farmers in southern Ghana, the article answers the research question: To what extent do smallholder farmers perception of climate variability indicators align or vary from objective climate data? We find variation between farmers perception of climate indicators and the objective data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency. Specifically, while farmer perceptions showed a decrease in rainfall over the past 10 years (2009–2018), the objective data proved otherwise. Again, a contradiction existed between farmers perception of sunshine and the scientific data. However, farmers’ perceptions of temperature aligned with the objective data. The scientific data established coefficient of variations of 0.21, 0.04, 0.03, and 0.12 for rainfall, sunshine, maximum, and minimum temperatures respectively. We recommend collaborative efforts between the national research council’s, Ghana Meteorological Agency, and academic institutions to commission further studies that will test, confirm, and harmonize the reliability of smallholder perceptions of climate variability and change in climate adaptation efforts.