A taxa de câmbio real de equilíbrio no Brasil

Abstract

The object of this study is to estimate the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (ERER) for the Brazilian economy and compare it with the actual Real Exchange Rate (RER). To estimate the ERER, this study adopts the methodology developed initially by Sebastian Edwards. The estimation is based on monthly data, starting on the date of introduction of the Real Plan (July of 1994) to December of 2002. The results show that on the occasion of the introduction of the Real Plan the RER was over-valuated. From 1995 to 1998 the results show that the real exchange rate was near to its equilibrium level. From 1998 the results indicate a Real Exchange Rate that is under-valued.