Estimating the Predictability of the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation Using the Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent Approach

Abstract

The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is a major intraseasonal variability (ISV) in the tropics. Based on bandpass-filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and wind field data, the predictability limits of the QBWO in boreal summer and boreal winter are investigated using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) approach. The analysis shows that the evolution of the mean error growth of the QBWO in boreal summer and the evolution of the mean error growth in boreal winter are comparable. Both curves exhibit rapid growth in the initial stage followed by a slowly fluctuating, ascending trend before saturation is reached. As a result, the potential predictability limits for the boreal summer QBWO are very close to those for the boreal winter QBWO, with a lead time of approximately three weeks. Given the current limitations in the simulation and prediction of ISV, including the QBWO, the results of this study provide a useful reference for assessing the predictability of the QBWO using model simulations.