Orbitofrontal cortex signals expected outcomes with predictive codes when stable contingencies promote the integration of reward history

Abstract

Memory can inform goal-directed behavior by linking current opportunities to past outcomes. The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) may guide value-based responses by integrating the history of stimulus–reward associations into expected outcomes, representations of predicted hedonic value and quality. Alternatively, the OFC may rapidly compute flexible “online” reward predictions by associating stimuli with the latest outcome. OFC neurons develop predictive codes when rats learn to associate arbitrary stimuli with outcomes, but the extent to which predictive coding depends on most recent events and the integrated history of rewards is unclear. To investigate how reward history modulates OFC activity, we recorded OFC ensembles as rats performed spatial discriminations that differed only in the number of rewarded trials between goal reversals. The firing rate of single OFC neurons distinguished identical behaviors guided by different goals. When >20 rewarded trials separated goal switches, OFC ensembles developed stable and anticorrelated population vectors that predicted overall choice accuracy and the goal selected in single trials. When <10 rewarded trials separated goal switches, OFC population vectors decorrelated rapidly after each switch, but did not develop anticorrelated firing patterns or predict choice accuracy. The results showthat, whereas OFCsignals respondrapidlytocontingencychanges, theypredict choices onlywhenrewardhistoryis relativelystable, suggesting that consecutive rewarded episodes are needed for OFC computations that integrate reward history into expected outcomes.