Impacts of climate and land-use changes on the hydrological processes in the amur river basin

Abstract

Under the joint effects resulted from different changes of climate and land-use regimes, spatial-temporal variations of hydrological processes took place in certain principles. Identifying the impact of changes in individual land-use types/climatic factors on hydrological processes is significant for water management and sustainability of watersheds. In this study, seven simulation scenarios were developed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to distinguish the impacts of climate and land-use changes on the hydrological processes in the Amur River Basin (ARB) for four periods of 1980-1990, 1991-1999, 2000-2006, and 2007-2013, respectively. Based on the multi-period simulation scenario data, partial least squares regression and ridge regression analyses were performed to further evaluate the effects of changes in individual land-use types/climatic factors on hydrologic components. The results suggested that summer precipitation and summer average temperature were the dominant climatic factors, and crops and wetlands were the principal land-use types contributing to the hydrological responses. In addition, the drastic changes in crop and wetland areas and a clear decline in summer precipitation between the periods of 1991-1999 and 2000-2006 may account for the highest-intensity impacts of climate and land-use changes on the runoff at the outlet (-31.38% and 16.17%, respectively) during the four periods.